Quantifying Long-Term Impact: The Challenge of Upper-Funnel Advertising Investments

Over the past few weeks we’ve been going deeper into the role of validation and calibration in marketing measurement. This is the seventh post in a series of posts derived from our recent webinar. Catch the full event on demand here, also read the first, second, third, fourth, fifth, and sixth posts.

One of the most elusive goals in marketing measurement is quantifying the long-term impact of upper-funnel investments, such as awareness campaigns, brand-building initiatives, or iconic advertisements like a Super Bowl spot. These efforts often create intangible value—shaping consumer perceptions and strengthening brand equity over time—that is difficult to capture with traditional measurement methodologies.

“While MMM and testing excel at capturing short- and medium-term results, understanding the lasting impact of campaigns like a memorable Super Bowl ad requires a more bespoke approach,” explained Aoun Jafarey, Senior Vice President of Client Solutions & Data Science at Publicis Groupe.

Why Long-Term Impact is Hard to Measure

Traditional marketing measurement tools like Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) and incrementality testing are designed to analyze short-to-medium-term outcomes. They excel at determining the immediate or near-term impact of media investments, but their frameworks fall short in capturing:

1. The Durability of Brand Awareness: Upper-funnel campaigns often create impressions that linger for months or years, influencing future purchasing decisions.
2. Indirect Effects on Lower-Funnel Metrics: Investments in brand-building can drive indirect benefits, such as increased effectiveness of performance marketing campaigns or organic growth through word-of-mouth.
3. Changing Consumer Behavior Over Time: The long-term impact of campaigns is shaped by variables like competitive dynamics, cultural shifts, and economic factors, which are difficult to isolate or predict.

These complexities make it challenging to establish a clear counterfactual—the hypothetical scenario of what would have happened without the campaign—over an extended time horizon.

Potential Solutions for Measuring Long-Term Impact

While perfect measurement is unattainable, Jafarey and the panelists outlined practical methods for estimating and demonstrating the long-term value of upper-funnel efforts:

1. Combine Brand Lift Studies with Lifetime Value (LTV) Analysis
   Brand lift studies measure changes in key brand perception metrics, such as awareness, consideration, and favorability, following a campaign. By pairing these results with lifetime value analysis, marketers can estimate how increased brand affinity translates into long-term revenue.
   Example: If a campaign leads to a measurable increase in brand awareness among a key demographic, marketers can track how that group’s purchasing behavior evolves over time, calculating the incremental LTV attributable to the campaign.
2. Track Consumer Journey Over Time
   With robust first-party data, brands can track how upper-funnel campaigns influence consumer behavior across touchpoints. For example:
   • Did exposure to a video ad lead to increased searches for the brand?
   • Did those searches eventually convert into purchases?
   • How did this activity compare to consumers who were not exposed to the campaign?
   This longitudinal approach can help brands draw a clearer line between upper-funnel investments and downstream outcomes.
3. Leverage Sentiment Analysis and Social Listening
   Sentiment analysis tools can provide a proxy for the long-term impact of campaigns by measuring how they influence public perception. Social listening can also reveal trends in consumer conversations, providing qualitative insights into how a campaign resonates over time.
   Case Study Example: Volvo’s recent EX90 campaign, which focused on storytelling and brand identity rather than product features, generated significant positive sentiment online. By analyzing this sentiment alongside search trends and eventual sales, Volvo could estimate the campaign’s impact on long-term brand equity.
4. Run Multi-Year Hierarchical Models
   For brands with extensive historical data, hierarchical Bayesian models can help quantify the cumulative impact of upper-funnel campaigns by incorporating long-term variables such as repeat purchase rates and changes in market share.
5. Integrate Post-Campaign Surveys with Sales Metrics
   Post-campaign surveys can measure shifts in consumer attitudes and preferences. When paired with granular sales data, these insights can show how changes in perception correlate with revenue growth.

The Business Case for Long-Term Measurement

While the tools and processes required to measure long-term impact may seem complex, the business case for doing so is clear:

• Maximizing ROI: Quantifying long-term effects helps brands justify investments in upper-funnel initiatives, which are often undervalued in traditional measurement frameworks.
• Balancing Short- and Long-Term Goals: By demonstrating how brand-building efforts contribute to sustained growth, marketers can ensure these initiatives remain a priority alongside performance marketing.
• Creating a Competitive Advantage: Brands that consistently invest in and measure long-term impact are better positioned to build lasting consumer loyalty and outperform competitors over time.

Quantifying the long-term impact of upper-funnel campaigns is a challenge, but it is not an insurmountable one. By combining innovative methodologies like brand lift studies, LTV analysis, and hierarchical models, marketers can build a compelling case for the enduring value of brand-building efforts.

“Long-term measurement requires creativity and commitment,” concluded Jafarey. “But for brands willing to invest in these approaches, the payoff is a deeper understanding of what drives lasting growth—and how to sustain it.”