What is a Matched Market Test?

A matched market test is a marketing experiment designed to measure the incremental impact of a campaign by comparing two or more similar geographic regions. One region (the test market) is exposed to the marketing campaign, while the other (the control market) is not. By analyzing the differences in performance between these matched markets, marketers can determine how much additional value—often referred to as incremental lift—their campaign generated.

This testing approach is commonly used for regional campaigns, product launches, or evaluating the impact of promotions in specific areas. Matched market tests allow brands to assess how well their campaigns perform in real-world settings by controlling for external factors that could affect results.

At Rockerbox, matched market tests are an integral part of our unified measurement solution. Combined with methods like Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) and Multi-Touch Attribution (MTA), matched market testing gives brands the insights they need to understand the true impact of their campaigns. Rockerbox’s professional services team also offers guidance throughout the testing process, ensuring your matched market tests deliver reliable results.

Why a Matched Market Test is Important

Measure Campaign Effectiveness in Real Markets
A matched market test provides a clear understanding of how a campaign performs in real-world conditions. By comparing results between similar geographic regions, you can see whether your campaign is actually driving incremental sales, conversions, or other key metrics.
Reduce Bias and Improve Accuracy
By matching similar regions for the test and control markets, matched market tests reduce bias and ensure that any performance differences can be attributed to the campaign itself, rather than external variables.
Optimize Regional Marketing Strategies
Matched market tests help you identify which regions respond most effectively to your marketing efforts, allowing you to focus your budget on the areas where you can drive the highest incremental lift. This helps improve the efficiency of your marketing spend.
Validate Campaign Effectiveness
Matched market tests allow you to validate whether your marketing campaigns are truly driving new growth. By understanding which regions or markets show the most incremental lift, you can refine your strategy to ensure continued success.

How a Matched Market Test Works

A matched market test involves selecting two or more similar regions, running a campaign in one (the test market), and comparing it to the control market. Here’s how the process works:

Selecting the Test and Control Markets
The first step in a matched market test is to select the test and control markets. The test market is where the campaign will be active, and the control market is a similar region where the campaign will not run. At Rockerbox, we help you identify regions that match in terms of demographics, size, and purchasing behavior to ensure that the results of the test are meaningful.
Running the Campaign in the Test Market
Once the test and control markets are selected, the campaign is launched in the test market. Rockerbox tracks key performance metrics in both the test and control markets during the campaign, including sales, conversions, and engagement.
Comparing Performance Between Markets
After the campaign has run for a sufficient period, Rockerbox compares the performance of the test market to the control market. This comparison allows us to determine the incremental lift generated by the campaign—how much more value was created in the test market compared to what would have happened without the campaign.
Analyzing the Results
Rockerbox’s data analysts review the results of the matched market test to calculate the incremental impact. We focus on metrics such as incremental Return on Ad Spend (iROAS) and incremental Cost Per Order (iCPO) to help you understand the financial value of your campaign.
Integrating Results into Unified Measurement
The results from your matched market test are integrated with your MMM and MTA models to provide a unified view of your marketing performance. This holistic analysis helps you understand both regional performance and the overall effectiveness of your campaigns across all channels.

How Rockerbox Helps You Run Matched Market Tests

At Rockerbox, we specialize in helping brands run matched market tests that provide accurate, actionable insights. Here’s how we support your matched market testing efforts:

Expert Region Selection
Choosing the right test and control markets is critical for a successful matched market test. Rockerbox’s professional services team works closely with you to select geographic areas that are as similar as possible in demographics, consumer behavior, and other characteristics. This ensures that the test is reliable and that any differences in performance can be attributed to the campaign.
Test Setup and Management
Rockerbox manages the entire process of setting up and running your matched market test. We ensure that the test and control markets are correctly selected and that the campaign is executed precisely as planned. Throughout the test period, we collect performance data to provide accurate insights.
Detailed Data Analysis
After the test is complete, Rockerbox’s data experts analyze the results to calculate the incremental impact of the campaign. We provide clear, actionable insights into the performance of the test market compared to the control market, giving you a detailed understanding of the campaign’s effectiveness.
Unified Measurement Integration
The results of your matched market test are integrated with your broader MMM and MTA models, ensuring you get a comprehensive view of your marketing performance across all channels and regions. This helps you optimize your overall marketing strategy based on real-world data.
Ongoing Optimization with Expert Guidance
Beyond delivering insights, Rockerbox works with you to optimize your future marketing efforts based on the results of your matched market test. We provide ongoing support and recommendations to help you adjust your campaigns, allocate budgets more efficiently, and drive continuous improvement.

Benefits of Matched Market Testing

Real-World Insights
Matched market testing gives you an accurate picture of how your campaign performs in real-world markets. By comparing performance between similar regions, you can understand the true impact of your marketing efforts.
Improve Budget Allocation
By identifying the regions where your campaign generates the most incremental lift, matched market tests help you allocate your marketing budget more effectively. You can reduce waste and focus your resources on areas where your campaigns deliver the highest returns.
Validate Campaign Effectiveness
Matched market tests provide a clear way to validate whether your marketing campaigns are truly driving new sales, conversions, or engagement. This helps you refine your strategy and ensure that your campaigns are optimized for maximum impact.
Continuous Campaign Improvement
Matched market testing helps you continuously improve your campaigns by providing real data on what works and what doesn’t. You can refine your messaging, creative, and targeting to improve results over time.

Why Choose Rockerbox for Matched Market Testing?

At Rockerbox, we offer a comprehensive approach to matched market testing, combining expert guidance with advanced measurement tools to ensure your campaigns deliver real results.

Unified Measurement Approach
Matched market testing is part of Rockerbox’s unified measurement solution, which also includes MMM and MTA. This integrated approach provides a complete view of your marketing performance, allowing you to optimize both region-specific and overall strategies.
Expert Support
Our professional services team works with you throughout the entire matched market testing process, from selecting test and control markets to analyzing results. We ensure that your tests are set up for success and that you gain accurate, actionable insights.
Actionable Insights
Rockerbox delivers insights that help you refine your marketing strategy based on the results of your matched market test. We work with you to ensure that the insights gained from your test lead to better campaign performance and higher returns.
Long-Term Support
From test design to strategy optimization, Rockerbox provides ongoing support throughout the matched market testing process. Our goal is to help you maximize the effectiveness of your marketing efforts over the long term.

FAQs About Matched Market Testing

What is a matched market test in marketing?
A matched market test is a type of marketing experiment that compares the performance of two similar geographic regions—one where a campaign is active (test market) and one where no campaign is running (control market)—to measure the incremental impact of the campaign.

How does Rockerbox help with matched market testing?
Rockerbox helps brands design and execute matched market tests, providing expert support throughout the process. We ensure the test is set up correctly, analyze the results, and integrate the insights with MMM and MTA models for a unified view of marketing performance.

Why is matched market testing important?
Matched market testing is important because it helps marketers understand the true impact of their campaigns in real-world markets. By isolating the incremental lift generated by a campaign, marketers can make better decisions about where to allocate resources and how to refine their strategies for better results.